Norman Arey’s basketball picks: Trimming begins for more than 300 teams as conference tournament week starts

By Norman Arey

Here’s where the real fun starts. The NCAA and 32 men’s basketball conferences try to whittle a total of 347 Division I basketball teams down to 68. If you’re interested in trivia, that’s a total of 4,511 men’s scholarship basketball players encompassing all 50 states. In an attempt to arrange it all to make sense and give you some idea of what to expect, we’re going to examine only the major players and conferences. They all begin play this week in tournaments which will leave exactly 68 teams remaining to do battle for spots in the Final Four and eventually a national champion will be identified.

Let me give a couple of hints. If you join any betting pools or bracket filling-outs, take Kentucky to win it all. You don’t have to be a soothsayer to figure the Wildcats should be the heavy favorite in this basketball orgy. They are the only one of the 347 teams who managed to make it through the regular season without losing a single game. If you need a second choice, you might try Virginia, Duke or Villanova. The rest of it is simply wild guessing and speculation.

We’re going to take a look at the five major conferences and a couple of the smaller ones trying to get things into a workable form. The Big Ten, Big XII, SEC and Pac-12 begin today with their title games scheduled this weekend. The ACC began Tuesday. The Big Ten’s top seed is Wisconsin (28-3) with Maryland, Michigan State and Purdue numbers two through four. The Big XII will feature top-seeded Kansas as usual with Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor right behind. The Pac-12’s top squad is Arizona (28-3) with Oregon, Utah and UCLA trailing along.

Then we get to the Southeastern Conference and the Atlantic Coast Conference – both of which we will examine closely. Kentucky is, of course, the spearhead of the SEC and whoever is second is up for discussion. Arkansas is seeded second, but the Wildcats decimated the Razorbacks the last time they met. Surprisingly Georgia got a double-bye and was seeded third in the SEC and won’t play until Friday when it will meet the Rebels of Ole Miss if the seeding holds.

“Kentucky has the best defense I’ve ever seen,” said basketball analyst Dick Vitale. “They may have the best defense in the history of college basketball.” That observation isn’t far off as even the most ardent Wildcat fan would be hard-pressed to name the starting five on the Wildcat squad – mainly because coach John Calipari has assembled a whole passel of 5-star players who can be plugged into any position on the floor. If you must have names, Aaron Harrison leads the team in scoring with an 11.3 points-per game average while Devin Booker is scoring at a 10.9 clip. But Calipari has nine players who are averaging 5 or more points per outings, so no opponent can try and stop just one or two players. Georgia is the real surprise of the year. The Bulldogs hardly got a mention in the pre-season and were chosen to be an NIT probable. Instead Mark Fox coached a brilliant 20-10 season although Georgia doesn’t really possess a top scorer. Marcus Thornton led the ‘Dogs with a 12.2 average but what Fox can do is put five players on the floor who average 10 points or more. In other words, Georgia does a good job of spreading the scoring around. The SEC is assured of having the No. 1 overall seed in Kentucky, but what isn’t sure if how many more teams will be invited to the March Extravaganza. The SEC might have only two or three invites which should include both Arkansas and Georgia. Perhaps the year’s biggest disappointment in the league is Florida, who was chosen as No. 2 in pre-season. The Gators managed only a 15-16 record and are the eighth-seeded team in Nashville.

The ACC is entirely another story. The surprising Virginia Cavaliers secured the top seed with a 28-2 overall mark, losing only to Duke and dropping a season-ender to Louisville – neither is a loss of which to be ashamed. The Cavs are much like Kentucky with no super stars in the lineup. They’re led by Malcolm Brogdon’s 13.7 points, Justin Anderson at 13.4 and Anthony Gill at 11.6. It should be noted that the Wahoos average only 65.5 per game but their heralded defense allows only 50.3 per outing. Second-seeded Duke (28-3) has the best freshman in the business in center Jahlil Okafor and, in fact, starts three freshmen. Notre Dame is coached by Mike Bray, who is a Mike Krzyzewski disciple while Louisville comes in at 24-7 and is guided by the infamous Rick Pitino. The Tar Heels of North Carolina were a mild disappointment this season, finishing 21-10 and seeded fifth. There is good news concerning Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets didn’t finish last – only next to last and is seeded No. 13.

With all that said, here are your winners:

Arizona will defeat UCLA in the finals of the Pac-12; Kansas will once again take home the flag in the Big XII by whipping the Cyclones of Iowa State; I don’t believe there is anyone in the Big Ten who can take down Wisconsin and the Badgers should come through by beating up Michigan State in the title game. Gonzaga will win its conference while SMU should win. Also look for Wichita State to be around as well as Villanova out of the Big East. “Villanova is playing the best basketball in the country right now,” said St. John coach Steve Lavin.

There won’t be any mystery in the SEC with Kentucky traipsing through undefeated while Georgia will sneak into the Big Dance by opposing the Wildcats but losing in the finals. The ACC will truly be a show to behold, but I’ve got a feeling it’ll be Duke over Louisville in the finals.

In the Big Dance next week, Kentucky will be the No. 1 seeded team in the tourney with Duke, Villanova and Virginia taking care of the other top rankings in each division.

SEC Full Schedule:

First Round- Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 12 Mississippi State vs No. 13 Auburn- 6 p.m.
Game 2: No. 11 South Carolina vs No.14 Missouri- approximately 8:30 p.m.
Second Round- Thursday, March 12
Game 3: No. 8 Florida vs No. 9 Alabama- 12 p.m.
Game 4: No. 5 Texas A&M vs Miss. State/ Auburn winner- approximately 2:30 p.m.
Game 5: No. 7 Vanderbilt vs No. 10 Tennessee- 6 p.m.
Game 6: No. 6 Ole Miss vs South Carolina/ Missouri winner- approximately 8:30 p.m.
Quarterfinals- Friday, March 13
Game 7: No. 1 Kentucky vs Florida/ Alabama winner- 12 p.m.
Game 8: No. 4 LSU vs Game 4 winner- approximately 2:30 p.m.
Game 9: No. 2 Arkansas vs Vanderbilt/ Tennessee winner- 6 p.m.
Game 10: No. 3 Georgia vs Game 6 winner- approximately 8:30 p.m.
Semifinals- Saturday, March 14
Game 11: Game 7 winner vs Game 8 winner- 12 p.m.
Game 12: Game 9 winner vs Game 10 winner- approximately 2:30 p.m.
Finals- Sunday, March 15
Game 13: Game 11 winner vs Game 12 winner- 12 p.m.