10 p.m. Ware Mechanical Weather Alert: Northwest Georgia now under Tropical Storm Watch with tropical force winds, rain due in next 48 hours. Now is time to make preparations. 40 mph gusts, 3 to 8 inches of rain possible.

10 p.m. Ware Mechanical Weather Alert: Northwest Georgia now under Tropical Storm Watch with tropical force winds, rain due in next 48 hours. Now is time to make preparations. 40 mph gusts, 3 to 8 inches of rain possible.

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Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for most of North Georgia including Floyd, Bartow, Polk, Gordon and Chattooga counties:

A Tropical Storm Watch means Tropical storm wind conditions are possible somewhere within this area and within the next 48 hours

* WIND: Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

* FLOODING RAIN: Peak Rainfall Amounts: 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts

* TORNADO: Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes, but possible

* STORM INFORMATION:
– About 930 miles south of Atlanta GA or about 960 miles south of Rome GA
– Storm Intensity 60 mph
– Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 21 mph

The track has continued to shift to include more of our area which has increased the likelihood of tropical storm conditions in northwestern Georgia. Initial landfall is still expected over the Gulf Coast near Mississippi and Louisiana.

After initial landfall, Nate is expected rapidly weaken and make a northeastward turn into the local area. As a result, Nate is expected to bring tropical storm force winds to northwestern portions of Georgia, with maximum sustained winds ranging from 30 to 40 mph and maximum gusts to 40 to 50 mph possible. The strength of the peak winds are ultimately contingent on what strength at which Nate makes initial landfall and how much it weakens.

The westward track would also increase the threat for tornadoes beginning in the southwest across the area late Saturday night and into Monday morning.

WHEN:

Rain and possible tornadic activity will begin before the arrival of the strongest winds, and continue throughout the event. Rainfall will begin on Saturday as the storm approaches and continue into Monday afternoon. The threat for tornadic activity will increase late Saturday and last through Monday morning. The strongest winds are expected to arrive on early Sunday and remain until early Monday morning.

HURRICANE STATEMENT-SITUATION OVERVIEW
——————

Tropical Storm Nate continues to progress north northwest near Cancun Mexico and expected to make landfall along the gulf coast late Saturday night. The storm will then weaken to a tropical storm and lift northeast across portions of North Georgia late Sunday into Sunday night. It should be noted that impacts from heavy rain and potential tornadoes will precede the most significant winds with this system and are possible as early as Saturday evening.

During the height of the storm, winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible with gusts as high as 50 mph across far northwest Georgia. Storm total rainfall is expected to be on the order of 4 to 6 inches across along and north of the I85 corridor with locally higher amounts possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
—————–

* WIND: Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across portions of west and north Georgia. Potential impacts in this area include:
– Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
– Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
– A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
– Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. Potential impacts include:
– The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
– A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions.
– Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. Potential impacts include:
– Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
– Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
– Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
———————————-

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties which must be taken into account.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others.

 

 

 

OUTLOOK

The scene from Panama City beach as of 11 a.m. Friday courtesy of Brian McClellan.

At 2 p.m. EDT, Nate was moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea this afternoon and move near or over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday, and then move near or over the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles mainly to the east of the center.

FORECAST

Today: Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 71. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 80. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 72. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Columbus Day: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 69.

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